Yemen's water: a different national security threat

Tue, 15 Jun 2010 16:32:59 +0000

WASHINGTON–After a Yemen-based branch of al Qaeda claimed it was behind the foiled terrorist attack on Christmas day late last year, the country on the tip of the Arabian Peninsula has garnered national attention.

Described as a ticking time bomb for extremism, Yemen has captured public attention as al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s primary new breeding ground — a chronic politically unstable state ripe for AQAP’s exploitation. More than 100 Yemenis have been incarcerated in Guantanamo since 2002 and several hundred al Qaeda affiliated militants are said to operate in the country.

Yet for many Yemenis, the pervasive al Qaeda threat is eclipsed by more impending crises, including an increasingly violent secessionist movement in the south and a civil war in the north. In addition to civil unrest, the poorest nation in the region – and one of the poorest in the world – faces yet another catastrophe whose numbers portend a far deadlier long-term challenge.

Yemen’s population of 23 million, nearly half of whom are under the age of 15, is expected to double by 2035.

And experts claim the capital city, Sana’a, could become the world’s first capital city to run dry, raising concerns that a World Heritage City could devolve into a mere ghost town.

Yemen’s oil accounts for approximately 85% of the government’s revenue. Profit is used to subsidize expensive diesel pumps to extract water, but analysts predict that its petroleum output, already down from 460,000 barrels a day in 2002 to 300-350,000 in 2007, will fall to 0 in 2017.

“Everyone — the Yemeni people, the American government — are sitting around waiting for the crisis to vanish,” said Mohammed Albasha, press and public relations officer at the Embassy of Yemen in Washington. “They’re just talking about it and no one is giving solutions.”

Greg Johnsen, Princeton University expert on Yemen, argues that solutions have been offered – they’re just detrimental.

“Counterterrorism is the only tool the administration is availing themselves with to deal with Yemen and that is a catastrophic mistake,” said Johnsen.

Will Rogers, research assistant at the Center for a New American Security think tank, says the development community must work with locals to break the cycle and bolster the government’s legitimacy.

“You can throw money at the problem but if u don’t have a sustainable plan, you won’t see improvement,” he said.

As water becomes more scarce, the government is increasingly unable to maintain control and legitimacy over tribal governments. Pockets of ungoverned spaces present opportunities for al Qaeda to exploit economic and political challenges.

If the overarching goal is to make Yemen a more stable state, then the first and most basic task is to develop sustainable water projects. But that has become increasingly difficult.

According to a February 2009 report by Integrated Regional Information Network, eighty percent of rural water projects funded by World Bank and Yemen government programs had been seized by tribesmen near or upon completion.

“The effective implementation of programs is hampered by Yemen’s limited institutional capacity,” said Xavier Devictor, World Bank Country Program Coordinator for Egypt, Yemen, and Djibouti. “And actions are likely to require social change, which may take time to materialize.”

Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affair Maria Otero recently traveled to the Middle East in a trip that was said to underscore the need to elevate America’s diplomatic efforts surrounding water.

“Yemen is perhaps the most extreme example of the problems in the region,” said Carl Schonander, primary policy person for the Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs under Otero.

But Yemen wasn’t a stop on the department’s tour.

“The trip was planned far in advanced and we didn’t make it to Yemen,” he said, “but the consciousness of the issues should no doubt be raised more.”

Many are counting on it. But as the Yemeni proverb goes, from a pound of talk, an ounce of understanding.

“The next big war in the Middle East wont be over oil, but water,” said Albasha.

“It’s the main source for life,” he said, “and will be the next big ugly battle.”

Can Ghana avoid the "curse of black gold"?

Tue, 11 May 2010 19:25:30 +0000

“The oil discovery is a good thing for Ghana. We can make it a blessing instead of a curse.” Ghana National Petroleum Corporation, July 2008.

WASHINGTON — They found oil … in Ghana.

In 2007, UK-based Tullow Oil and U.S.-based Kosmos Energy and Anadarko Petroleum discovered a large accumulation of crude oil at an exploration well off the Western Atlantic coast. Soon after, Ghana’s then-President John Kufuor addressed a crowd of journalists and public officials at the Osu Castle government seat in the capital of Accra.

Reportedly, Kufuor was holding a glass of champagne in one hand, happy.

One BBC correspondent quoted the president as saying, “…you come back in five years, and you’ll see that Ghana truly is the African tiger, in economic terms of development.”

Since then, the Jubilee Oil field has become a major find. The International Monetary Fund gave a total revenue estimate of $20 billion from 2012 to 2030. By 2030, the reserves are expected to reach depletion, after reaching a 500-600 barrel mark.

Certainly, oil revenues will surpass those from gold and cocoa, which are the nation’s main commodity exports. With some 120,000 barrels of oil to be extracted per day at its peak, the country’s proven reserves will be near the reserves of its neighbor, Ivory Coast which are at 100 million barrels, according to the IMF. Peak production will be from 2011 to 2016 and is expected to generate nearly $1 billion a year.

Kosmos Energy, founded in Dallas in 2003, is an international, independent oil and gas exploration company. The company’s Ghanaian affiliate, Kosmos Energy Ghana HC, signed its first petroleum agreement with the country in 2004.

Now, negotiations and contracts to begin drilling have been signed and President John Atta-Mills has articulated the government’s goals for increased structural development. Not surprisingly, dozens of scholars and think tanks have released reports on how Ghana should properly manage its potentially vast—and lucrative–oil resources.

Many of them say that if Ghana can find a way to make its oil a curse and not a blessing, it will be a great boost—not just to its own people, but to the continent of Africa and beyond. Otherwise, they say, the consequences will be dire.

“If Ghana fails to manage its resources well, then, there’s no hope for Africa,” said Howard University professor, Wilfred David. In an interview, he said Ghana’s government must do everything it can to not follow Nigeria’s poor example of oil management.

“The country must look at the needs of the rural poor and urban poor in providing the basic sectors for the people,” said David, who was a senior economist at the World Bank where he researched African development policy and economics before becoming a professor in 1979 at the reputable historically African-American university.

There are many indications that Ghana could be a good steward of its newfound resources.

Since its independence, Ghana has not had a civil war. The occasional ethnic rivalries have been contained for the most part. Its first president, Kwame Nkrumah, put in place a basis for nationalism and patriotism with the implementation of a number of social programs and economic stimulus initiatives, most notably- the Akosombo Dam, which supplies Ghana with hydroelectric power and forms Lake Volta. Although the country did experience economic downturn in the 1980s with many of its patriots fleeing abroad and to neighboring countries, especially Nigeria, signs of recovery emerged in the mid- 1990s. The progress has continued since then.

Many view Ghana as the hope of Africa in terms of development and democratic sustainability. The World Bank reported that the country has become a “stable state.” The World Bank also reported that Ghana, unlike Nigeria, has effectively monitored corruption and government effectiveness. It has had five successive presidential democratic elections.

When President Barack Obama visited the West African nation last July, he said he was proud that Ghana was the first sub-Saharan African nation he had visited as President and that oil will bring many opportunities.

“Here in Ghana, you show a face of Africa that is too often overlooked by a world that sees only tragedy or the need for charity,” he said in an address to Ghana’s parliament, “the people of Ghana have worked hard to put democracy on a firmer footing.”

But Ghana must also learn the lessons of some of its neighbors, which have found that managing their oil reserves can become what the locals call the “black curse.”

Throughout Africa, the discovery and subsequent exploitation of natural resources have brought the good, the bad and the ugly. Too often, the political elite usually enjoy a disproportionate share of the revenue of natural resources. While these tiny percentages of the population live luxurious lifestyles, the majority live in penury. The dreams of how the minerals, cocoa, diamonds and other natural resources will uplift the country too often turn into hellish nightmares as civil wars often erupt and impoverished people live under authoritarian rule riddled with corruption.

Nigeria has been a vital supplier to the U.S. For more than three decades, it has led oil production in sub-Saharan Africa and as the continent’s most populous nation, it is also one of the world’s 10 largest oil- producing countries. Its highly prized crude oil is light and sweet, which means that it is low in impurities such as sulphur.

However, violence in the oil-rich, Niger-Delta region has been more than problematic. Kidnappings, brutal murders, and civil upheavals have occurred frequently in recent years as local residents demand that the oil revenue trickle down to the needy populace. The situation had gotten so intense and so unpredictably volatile that even Royal Dutch Shell reduced oil production in the region by nearly half a few years ago.

In their 2009 report, researchers Todd Moss and Lauren Young, with the Center of Global Development, an independent, non-profit research organization, explained that civil conflicts, government corruption, economic instability, increased poverty, authoritarianism and the destruction of the social contract are directly linked to the exploitation of natural resources.

In an interview, Lauren Young said these negative outcomes usually arise when the interests of the governments of these natural resource- dependent nations are not in sync with those of the people.

In the end, says David,

“You judge the society by how your people are doing.”

In Ghana, the increased flow of money should help bring its residents to middle- income status, thus reducing poverty. And Ghana may reach the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by the 2015 deadline. These comprehensive development goals supported by every UN member state and several international organizations, target chronic poverty around the world. Some of the eight UN’s MDGs include: ensure environmental sustainability, develop a global partnership for development, achieve universal primary education and eradicate extreme hunger and poverty.

With a growing middle class, Ghana will attract more business, as Obama noted in his speech to the country’s parliament.

“If people are lifted out of poverty and wealth is created in Africa,’’ Obama said, “new markets will open for our own goods.’’

World Bank – Medill National Security Zone

Yemen's water: a different national security threat

Can Ghana avoid the "curse of black gold"?