Fact or Fiction?
2
The U.S. can become energy independent
False. Every president since Harry Truman has asserted his belief that the U.S. should become energy independent. But in reality, there is no such thing as true energy independence. Oil is a global commodity, meaning its price is set on the global market. In a global market, the price of energy, oil in this case, depends on consumer behavior – that is, the consumption of each participant in the global market.
“The worldwide market for oil makes it almost impossible for a large country like the United States to gain independence, or separation, from that market,” according to a 2012 U.S. Congressional Budget Office report on energy security. Incidents anywhere in the world could cause oil prices to spike, and regardless of how much energy and oil we produce domestically, we’ll still pay the price.
U.S. oil production is on the rise. The U.S. Energy Information Agency predicts steadily rising global oil production through 2035, according to the National Intelligence Council’s most recent Global Trends report. Much of that oil production, the report suggests, will come come from unconventional oil and gas development in North America. “Shale oil production in the U.S. is still in its early stages, and its full potential remains uncertain,” according to the report. “Preliminary estimates for 2020 range from 5-15 million barrels per day.” That’s up to twice as much as the approximately 5.7 million barrels per day produced in 2011 (EIA).
However, even if the United States becomes a net exporter of oil, like Canada, Americans still would be vulnerable to fluctuations and price shocks in the global oil market.
- By Elizabeth Bunn