President Donald Trump retweeted this video of his remarks at the White House on June 20. “You hear about certain places like Chicago and you hear about what’s going on in Detroit and other cities — all Democrat run. Every single one of them is Democrat-run.”
It’s unclear where Trump is pulling his list of the 20 most “dangerous” cities in America or whether by “Democrat-run” he means led by Democratic mayors.
CBS News ranked the cities with the highest rate of violent crime from 2017 FBI data. It is true that the top 20 cities on that list all currently have Democratic mayors:
Chicago: Lori Lightfoot (D)
Minneapolis: Jacob Frey (D)
New Orleans: LaToya Cantrell (D)
Lansing: Andy Schor (D)
Nashville: John Cooper (D)
Anchorage: Ethan Berkowitz (D)
San Bernardino: John Valdivia (D)
Oakland: Libby Schaaf (D)
Indianapolis: Joe Hogsett (D)
Springfield, MO: Ken McClure (D)
Albuquerque: Tim Keller (D)
Stockton: Michael Tubbs (D)
Cleveland: Frank G. Jackson (D)
Rockford, IL: Tom McNamara (D)
Milwaukee: Tom Barrett (D)
Little Rock: Frank Scott Jr. (D)
Memphis: Jim Strickland (D)
Baltimore: Bernard Young (D)
Detroit: Mike Duggan (D)
St. Louis: Lyda Krewson (D)
Whenever the FBI releases crime statistics, however, the agency explicitly advises against making simplified lists like these: “Each year when Crime in the United States is published, some entities use the figures to compile rankings of cities and counties. These rough rankings provide no insight into the numerous variables that mold crime in a particular town, city, county, state, tribal area, or region. Consequently, they lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting communities and their residents. Valid assessments are possible only with careful study and analysis of the range of unique conditions affecting each local law enforcement jurisdiction.”
Even though these cities have higher rates of violent crime, labeling them as “dangerous” can be problematic.
Additionally, urban areas tend to vote more Democratic, so elected leadership in any city is more likely to be Democratic, no matter the crime rate. 64 of the 100 largest cities in the country currently have Democrat mayors.
Finally, connecting violence and partisanship is not reasonable. While voting is widespread, crime is the product of a small number of people in small areas. It is not representative of the behavior of a city or of its leadership. A 2015 study examined crime networks in Chicago and concluded that 70% of the city’s non-fatal gun injuries involves networks that include just 6% of the city’s population.