The New York Times reports on the accuracy of an official tally of potential terrorists in Germany. In “Germany, Unscathed, Remains a Hub of the Terrorism Scare,” on Oct. 12, federal Michael Slackman reported that security services found that over two decades:
- About “215 citizens or legal residents of Germany received or intended to receive paramilitary training.”
- 65 completed the training.
- Of the total group, 105 are in Germany.
- Of those in Germany, 15 were in prison.
The accounting is echt German in its precision, and yet, as counterterrorism experts have pointed out, these kinds of figures can be deceptive. Many experts, for example, believe that there are between 50 and 1,000 Al Qaeda fighters around the world. The problem with the figures about terrorists is the way that these numbers are sometimes interpreted. Once the number of potential terrorists is cited, the next stop seems obvious: Deal with them – either by killing or capturing them, and as quickly as possible. If only it were that easy. One New York-based legal expert who studies terrorism cases in the U.S. cautions that the issues regarding the Al Qaeda network and other extremist groups are much more complex than they seem.
“I would get away from quantification,” he told me. “The strength of Al Qaeda is the strength of commitment; it’s not a temporal concept. It’s not about time. It’s not about numbers.” As he explained, analysts and counterterrorist experts should not jump to the conclusion that these groups are easy to get rid of – even when the number of members is relatively small.
