WASHINGTON — Center for a New American Security co-founder and CEO Michele Flournoy briefed reporters on international storylines with long-term future relevance to United States national security in an Oct. 1 keynote in Washington.
The keynote was held at the Hamilton Crowne Plaza as part of “Covering the Military, Veterans and Homeland Security: Tomorrow’s Trends and Issues,” the 2014 Medill National Security Journalism Initiative Conference.
Flournoy, who started out as a stringer for TIME Magazine and eventually became the top-ranked woman at the Pentagon in 2009, intended for the talk to be a roadmap for national security reporters.
For this reason, we’ve distilled her talk down to a mini-handbook to help you better navigate issues of national security relevance both within our borders and beyond.
1. THE ISLAMIC STATE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Flournoy called reporting on the Islamic State – which she said is fueled by a “fundamental, systemic instability” in the Middle East that is rooted in the Shi’a-Sunni divide – to be “relatively shallow” and identified the jihadist group ISIS and its actions as a great opportunity for investigative journalism.
“The manifestations may change, but the problems are going to be with us for quite some time, unfortunately,” she said.
HERE’S WHAT SHE THINKS YOU SHOULD BE ASKING:
- Where does the Islamic State come from?
- What drives its ideology?
- Why are people embracing the Islamic State?
- How can it most effectively be disrupted?
- What’s the American interest in the Islamic State issue?
- What kind of threat does it pose to the U.S. network?
- What kind of dangers does it pose to U.S. foreign interests and American citizens living abroad?
- What are different incarnations does the Islamic State take, and how is it evolving?
RELATED STORYLINES THAT WARRANT EXPLORING:
- Does and/or should the U.S. care about the Islamic State threat?
- What are the geopolitics of U.S. energy independence?
2. THE EMERGENCE AND INTENTIONS OF CHINA
“There is no region that is going to impact the U.S. economy or U.S. security more … in the next 20 years than [the] Asia-Pacific,” Flournoy said.
Flournoy said that China’s “incremental actions” within the Asia-Pacific region are calculated to simultaneously raise Chinese influence while minimizing international suspicion that its moves havei more global motives. However, she believes that the country aims to upend the current global-power hierarchy and change the international political playing field for good. According to Flournoy, China’s desire to remix the system is rooted in the fact that the current international order (and corresponding international relations policy) was crafted while China was in a weakened position and so it might feel disenfranchised.
STORIES TO WATCH:
- Whether China will be a globally minded stakeholder in the international order or to change that order for self-serving reasons
- How the map of Asia will change with increasing Chinese power
- How these changes will impact the country’s relationship with the U.S.
- How China uses its power
- Safeguarding international order that allows China to be succeeding now
3. THE FUTURE OF RUSSIA
“When I step back and look at Russia, I think the long story is this is a nation that is fundamentally in decline,” Flournoy said.
Citing issues including, but not limited to, the isolating nature of Putin’s foreign policy moves and attitudes, a limited economy and more, Flournoy predicted that the country’s complications will have a regional domino effect.
“The next 10 years, you’re going to see Europe completely rebalancing and reposturing to deal with a different Russia,” she continued.
PERTINENT STORYLINES/ THINGS TO WATCH:
- Decreasing life expectancy of Russia’s male population
- Russia’s failure to diversify their national economy beyond income from the energy industry
- The foreign policy implications of Putin’s antagonistic behavior
- NATO’s next moves with respect to Russia (which Flournoy said she expects to include an increased investment in military posture along Russia’s borders)
- The future involvement (or lack thereof) of European military’s in NATO action against Russia
- Difficulties with Russia’s integration into Europe
4. BORN IN THE USA
Flournoy also identified some homegrown storylines to keep an eye on:
- How technology will affect security over the long term
- Private-sector developments vs. government-funded research & development
- Foreign of U.S. global power in the wake of economic instability and in-fighting.
