WASHINGTON — Experts in U.S.-Iranian relations say last week’s discussions in Vienna among major nations on the Iranian nuclear program did not lead to an agreement but at least one believes it could happen before July 1.
A group of four panelists met at the Atlantic Council Tuesday morning to discuss the recent meeting held in Vienna, Austria between the P5+1 and Iran.
“I expected a framework agreement. They didn’t get one…I don’t know what they’re so excited about,” said Clifford Kupchan, chairman of the Eurasia Group, a consulting firm that analyzes global political risk.
The 10th round of negotiations between Iran and the P5+ (the United States, Russia, China, France, United Kingdom and Germany,) resulted in a decision to extend their Joint Plan of Action for the second time, to July 1.
Many hoped the nations would reach an agreement on how to proceed in terms of the scale of Iranian nuclear plans and U.S. and European sanctions placed on Iran.
“Iran didn’t have the political will to bend to an agreement,” Kupchan said.
Added Kupchan: “It’s like nailing Jello to the wall.”
But Cornelius Adebahr, an associate in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said “Iranians want a deal sooner…” than July 1 because the Iranian New Year is March 21and the government wants good news to share with its people.
However, the general view in Tehran during the month of October was people “expected the U.S. to back down,” Adebahr said. They believe “Iran has given in enough already.” If there is no deal it would be viewed as the “fault of the west,” Adebahr said.
Kupchan noted that even if there eventually is an agreement, it probably won’t lead to compromises on other issues between the U.S. and Iran. “Enmity of the U.S. is ingrained in Iranian government,” Kupchan said.
Under the Joint Plan of Action Iran agreed to make no further advances of its activities at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plan, Fordow, or the Arak reactor.
Also, it they have agreed to not reprocess or build a facility capable of reprocessing uranium and also to managed access for an International Atomic Energy Agency inspector to centrifuge assembly workshops, centrifuge rotor production workshops and storage facilities and uranium mines and mills.
In return, P5+1 agreed to suspend U.S. and E.U. sanctions on Iran’s petrochemical exports, and gold and precious metals, as well as sanctions on associated services for each. It also agreed to suspend U.S. sanctions on Iran’s auto industry and sanctions on associated services.
Another agreement the P5+1 undertook was to refrain from implementing any new nuclear-related E.U., U.S. or UN Security Council sanctions and create a way for humanitarian trade to reach Iran for domestic needs.
