Tag Archives: civil war

The West’s forgotten war

WASHINGTON — As ISIS captures land and headlines and President Barack  Obama pivots toward the Pacific, it can seem understandable that the backwater state of Somalia has received less press than in years past.

As if to remind the United States —and the world— of the serious crisis still unfolding in the Horn of Africa, gunmen linked to the Islamist extremist al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabaab stormed a university in neighboring Kenya in early April, killing 147, after systematically determining which among the students were Christians.

It is the deadliest attack inside Kenya since the 1998 US embassy bombing carried out on the orders of Osama bin Laden, and one that has many analysts worrying about the power of Islamic extremists in this impoverished corner of the world.

Somalia has been considered a failed state since the early 1990s. Armed opposition to the rule of longtime Marxist strongman Mohamed Siad Barre eventually exploded into civil war in 1986; the situation was exacerbated by food and fuel shortages and famine, which killed hundreds of thousands. The presence of UN and African Union peacekeepers has been largely unable to quell the ongoing violence between various warlords and armed factions.

The failed nation has proved to be fertile ground for hardline Islamist groups like the Islamic Courts Union —which briefly controlled southern Somalia before being driven out by Ethiopian troops— and al-Shabaab (“The Youth”), a jihadist group founded by Soviet-Afghan War veteran Aden Hashi Farah in 2006.

Though Farah was killed by a US airstrike in 2008 —a fate shared by many of al-Shabaab’s “emirs”— the movement continues on. While no longer at the height of its power, the group continues to control wide swaths of the countryside in Somalia’s south. Recent operations —including the Westgate shopping center attack in Nairobi in 2013— indicate that even a weakened al-Shabaab is extremely dangerous.

Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution’s Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, sees in al-Shabaab an increasingly dangerous and insidious threat.

“Compared to 2009, yes, Shabaab is weaker. But when I look at the issues in terms of security, it’s stagnating and at worst deteriorating,” she said.

Even though al-Shabaab no longer controls many major cities, Felbab-Brown said, the group’s influence is still widely felt. They control many small villages and roads and raise money by extorting travelers. Assassinations continue daily as al-Shabaab seeks to undermine confidence in the weak central government.

Asked about any potential links or similarities between a resurgent al-Shabaab and the more visible Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, Felbab-Brown is quick to highlight their differences. While al-Shabaab and ISIS may share some superficial similarities, she says, the Somali group has more in common with the Taliban than the Islamic State. Afghanistan, like Somalia, is a deeply tribal society, and tribal affiliations give al-Shabaab the resources it needs to thrive. And like the Taliban, al-Shabaab practices a “politics of exclusion” meant to disempower certain clans and religious minorities, a practice that suggests a preoccupation with local politics, not global jihad.

While both al-Shabaab and ISIS operate like Islamic armies, their aims and ideologies are different. According to Felbab-Brown, al-Shabaab seems to limit its horizons to Somalia specifically. Unlike the Nigerian Boko Haram, the Southeast Asian Jemaah Islamiyah and the Filipino Abu Sayyaf, al-Shabaab has not pledged allegiance to ISIS “caliph” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and shows little enthusiasm for a unified caliphate in their propaganda videos.

“They are struggling with the relationship they have with ISIS and al-Qaeda,” Felbab-Brown said.

Though there is some fear that foreign fighters trained by al-Shabaab may launch attacks in the West, such instances are few and far between, with most international jihadis flocking to ISIS. The real danger of al-Shabaab, Felbab-Brown said, is the possibility that the group will extend its reach. From bases inside Somalia, the jihadi group has ready access to East African countries —many of them US allies— that have so far been spared from the scourge of Islamist violence. Western embassies might also find themselves targeted.

As al-Shabaab regroups, the international community seeking to rebuild Somalia faces new challenges. Beside Islamic extremists, the UN and AU must contend with widespread corruption, an unpopular leadership, militant separatist groups, Ethiopian and Kenyan proxy forces and an unstable economy. For its part, the US has limited its involvement in Somalia as of late. Though the United States occasionally conducts drone strikes against al-Shabaab, fear of upsetting the delicate peace process and killing civilians means that drones are used less liberally there than in Yemen and Pakistan.

Experts like Felbab-Brown are urging the international community to take a new approach: hold Somalia accountable for governmental failures, even if that means confronting allies. Such steps are needed, they say, if ordinary Somalis are to see the government as a legitimate alternative to al-Shabaab.

“They [al-Shabaab] are not good governors. But Somalis often choose between the lesser of two evils,” Felbab-Brown said.

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After the celebration, fears of a South Sudan pre-failed state remain

Illustration by Surian Soosay

WASHINGTON—When 4 million southern Sudanese faced a referendum for independence in January, they seemed to present a united front. Ninety-eight percent voted to separate from the northern government, with which they fought a brutal civil war for more than 20 years.

But since the nearly unanimous vote, clashes between the region’s 68 ethnic groups and political parties have resulted in more than 2,000 deaths. The nation celebrated its official independence Saturday, but underneath the jubilant surface are growing fears that it may soon descend into another civil war. Some aid organizations have gone as far as calling South Sudan a pre-failed state.

“They blamed their problems on the north for so long, it made things easy,” said Laura Jones, policy analyst at the Enough Project, a nonprofit agency that works to prevent genocide. “Now they look to [the new government] and say, ‘Okay what are you going to do about it?’”

“Their problems” start with the transition of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army/Movement from a rebel militia to a political party in a stable democracy. The top members of the new government, including its president, Salva Kiir, are all SPLA/M officials. And since the majority of the rebels-cum-politicians are from the Dinka tribe, smaller tribes fear they’ll be swept aside when it comes to representation in a wave of corruption.

During the 22-year civil war, millions of Dinka were forced to flee their traditional homelands for refugee camps in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda. When the Comprehensive Peace Agreement went into effect in 2005, many returned to find their homelands occupied by other tribes.

Peter Nhial, a Dinka man who now lives in Chicago, said his people are not trying to dominate but only want what was stolen from them.

“We are the majority, but we are not trying to take over. You can come to the parliament of South Sudan—it’s not all Dinka,” he said. “But there’s no way we’ll let [the disputed land] go. It belongs to us.”

Despite his position, Nhial is a strong advocate for peace in the new country.

Al-Jazeera English tells a different story. In May it reported that the government is currently fighting with seven armed militias in nine of the nation’s 10 states. In May SPLA/M forces burned Shilluk villages in former Dinka territory of Upper Nile State, and raped and tortured villagers. The government claimed they were rebels it had to disarm.

“They do have lots of problems with corruption, and they spend too much money on the military,” Jones said.

While the new constitution protects individual rights, minority tribes are also calling for group rights—legal protections for tribal cultures and development.

“I can see how people wouldn’t want only individual rights, but that’s also dangerous,” Jones said. “The more you recognize differences between groups, the more they think they’re different. How do you build a nation from that?”

Ethnic tensions are being stoked by rebel leaders, who are more interested in personal power than in ending supposed Dinka corruption, she said. And there is ample evidence they are getting arms from the northern government, which still claims several regions on the border, such as oil-rich Abyei and South Kordofan.

“There’s no smoking gun; we don’t see an actual exchange of weapons, but the [northern government]’s strategy is divide and conquer,” she said.

The militias are at least getting a safe haven and often heavily armed when they return, she said.

Vincent Chetiel, regional representative for United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Washington, also said different sides may be “fighting through proxies.”

The U.N.’s mandate for its mission in South Sudan ended on its day of independence. On Monday the Security Council voted to replace it with a peacekeeping force of 7,000, and as troops phase out Chetiel fears larger clashes will resume. Nhial wants them to stay in his country until all of the land issues are resolved, but pressure from Khartoum makes this unlikely.

In the event of a peacekeeping vacuum, help may come from an unexpected source: China.

China has incurred the wrath of human rights groups for years, claiming it props up the northern Sudanese government through billions of dollars in oil purchases. The government used the cash to fund its fight against the rebels, the human rights activists charged, making it responsible for the deaths of millions of southern Sudanese.

But with 80 percent of Sudan’s oil reserves lying underground in the south, peace in the new nation may be China’s new primary concern.

“China first and foremost protects its own interests. Now that there are two states, it’s necessary to get along with both. If they say: ‘You’ve got to stop attacking them,’ they’ll be more open to listen. Its dependency on oil could be positive,” Jones said.

China angered the government of South Sudan when it hosted Sudan President Omar al-Bashir in June. Bashir has had a warrant for his arrest issued by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide since 2008. But it was also one of the first countries to recognize South Sudan’s sovereignty and is largely credited for getting the Bashir government to do the same.

For now, celebrating independence takes priority over the concerns. On Friday Jones and her co-workers at the Enough Project cracked open some champagne after work. On Saturday Nhial and his Dinka friends paraded through downtown Chicago. And Chetiel is optimistic that citizens of the newest nation are tired enough of war that they’ll work through their differences. But the celebration will be brief.

“Right now everyone’s really excited and have put their issues aside,” Jones said. “But it’s like the calm before the storm.”

 

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Civil War battlefields serve modern military efforts

GETTYSBURG, PA. — When the Union and Confederacy waged war against one another, the term “national security” did not exist. While politicians and generals always sought to protect the country’s borders, there was no convenient phrase to sum up initiatives designed to keep the United States safe. In fact, before the National Security Act of 1947, all we had to go on was the Constitution’s pledge to “provide for the common defense.”

Even though Ulysses S. Grant and Robert E. Lee never thought of national security as we conceive of it today, and ­the Civil War has been over for 150 years, today’s military can glean important insights from the war’s iconic battles. But with expanded development threatening battlefields in Gettysburg, Pa., Spotsylvania County, Va., and Pickett’s Mill, Ga., the chance to study what happened in these places in the current context, and to understand both good and bad leadership displayed there, is also in danger.

The tactics may not apply to modern warfare, but Civil War battlefields provide “valuable lessons we can learn about military leadership,” according to Dr. Conrad Crane, director of the U.S. Army Military History Institute at Carlisle Barracks, Pa.

It’s the mission of the Civil War Preservation Trust to ensure that opportunity is not stripped away.

“We subscribe to the theory that if you destroy where history happened, you start the process of destroying that history,” said Jim Lighthizer, president of the trust. “If you destroy that history, you very possibly might repeat the same mistakes you made in that period.”

The trust recently released its list of the 10 most endangered battlefields for 2010, and legendary Gettysburg made the cut. David LeVan, a former CEO of Conrail Corp and a local motorcycle dealer, wants to build a 5,000 square foot casino on the outskirts of town.

Crane said the preservation of Civil War battlefields, especially ones like Gettysburg where the leaders had to make improvised decisions directly affecting the outcome, is invaluable in teaching today’s military how to lead a force.

“From a military standpoint, the battlefields were initially preserved for staff rides for soldiers so they could get out and see the ground the way it was and work through the decision-making processes of the combatants at the time,” Crane said. “It’s a lot more useful to do a staff ride where you can actually see the ground than if you’re walking through a housing area.

“It goes back to being able to really go back in the past, to stand in position and say ‘This is where Robert E. Lee was when he made this decision.’”

The Wilderness in Spotsylvania County, Va., about 55 miles south of Washington, saw both the Battle of Chancellorsville in 1863 and the Battle of The Wilderness in 1864. Chancellorsville holds special importance because it’s where Stonewall Jackson lost an arm in a friendly fire incident while searching in darkness for a way to continue the battle with the Army of the Potomac reeling. Eight days later, Jackson was dead, a victim of pneumonia. Two months later, the Confederates lost at Gettysburg, a battle in which Jackson’s leadership could have made a dramatic difference.

Now, the battlefield is threatened by a major shopping center with a Wal-Mart and four other retail outlets. Encroachment by commercial properties jeopardizes the site where Lee took the initiative and divided his forces, a controversial leadership decision that had allowed Jackson, who would eventually fall in a friendly fire incident that led to his pneumonia, to roll up the Union’s right flank and rout a force that doubled his own.

“The experience of walking in those footsteps will be irreparably changed,” said author Jeff Shaara, who has written multiple novels about the Civil War, including “Gods and Generals.”

With counterinsurgency playing such a large role in military operations, the Army and Marines could learn a lot from the ways the Union fought John Singleton Mosby, William Quantrill and Bloody Bill Anderson, partisans who engaged the Federal Army from the Atlantic all the way to Kansas. But with battlefields across the country succumbing to urban sprawl, those lessons may fade away into the past. ­

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