Tag Archives: United Nations

The West’s forgotten war

WASHINGTON — As ISIS captures land and headlines and President Barack  Obama pivots toward the Pacific, it can seem understandable that the backwater state of Somalia has received less press than in years past.

As if to remind the United States —and the world— of the serious crisis still unfolding in the Horn of Africa, gunmen linked to the Islamist extremist al-Qaeda affiliate al-Shabaab stormed a university in neighboring Kenya in early April, killing 147, after systematically determining which among the students were Christians.

It is the deadliest attack inside Kenya since the 1998 US embassy bombing carried out on the orders of Osama bin Laden, and one that has many analysts worrying about the power of Islamic extremists in this impoverished corner of the world.

Somalia has been considered a failed state since the early 1990s. Armed opposition to the rule of longtime Marxist strongman Mohamed Siad Barre eventually exploded into civil war in 1986; the situation was exacerbated by food and fuel shortages and famine, which killed hundreds of thousands. The presence of UN and African Union peacekeepers has been largely unable to quell the ongoing violence between various warlords and armed factions.

The failed nation has proved to be fertile ground for hardline Islamist groups like the Islamic Courts Union —which briefly controlled southern Somalia before being driven out by Ethiopian troops— and al-Shabaab (“The Youth”), a jihadist group founded by Soviet-Afghan War veteran Aden Hashi Farah in 2006.

Though Farah was killed by a US airstrike in 2008 —a fate shared by many of al-Shabaab’s “emirs”— the movement continues on. While no longer at the height of its power, the group continues to control wide swaths of the countryside in Somalia’s south. Recent operations —including the Westgate shopping center attack in Nairobi in 2013— indicate that even a weakened al-Shabaab is extremely dangerous.

Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution’s Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, sees in al-Shabaab an increasingly dangerous and insidious threat.

“Compared to 2009, yes, Shabaab is weaker. But when I look at the issues in terms of security, it’s stagnating and at worst deteriorating,” she said.

Even though al-Shabaab no longer controls many major cities, Felbab-Brown said, the group’s influence is still widely felt. They control many small villages and roads and raise money by extorting travelers. Assassinations continue daily as al-Shabaab seeks to undermine confidence in the weak central government.

Asked about any potential links or similarities between a resurgent al-Shabaab and the more visible Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, Felbab-Brown is quick to highlight their differences. While al-Shabaab and ISIS may share some superficial similarities, she says, the Somali group has more in common with the Taliban than the Islamic State. Afghanistan, like Somalia, is a deeply tribal society, and tribal affiliations give al-Shabaab the resources it needs to thrive. And like the Taliban, al-Shabaab practices a “politics of exclusion” meant to disempower certain clans and religious minorities, a practice that suggests a preoccupation with local politics, not global jihad.

While both al-Shabaab and ISIS operate like Islamic armies, their aims and ideologies are different. According to Felbab-Brown, al-Shabaab seems to limit its horizons to Somalia specifically. Unlike the Nigerian Boko Haram, the Southeast Asian Jemaah Islamiyah and the Filipino Abu Sayyaf, al-Shabaab has not pledged allegiance to ISIS “caliph” Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and shows little enthusiasm for a unified caliphate in their propaganda videos.

“They are struggling with the relationship they have with ISIS and al-Qaeda,” Felbab-Brown said.

Though there is some fear that foreign fighters trained by al-Shabaab may launch attacks in the West, such instances are few and far between, with most international jihadis flocking to ISIS. The real danger of al-Shabaab, Felbab-Brown said, is the possibility that the group will extend its reach. From bases inside Somalia, the jihadi group has ready access to East African countries —many of them US allies— that have so far been spared from the scourge of Islamist violence. Western embassies might also find themselves targeted.

As al-Shabaab regroups, the international community seeking to rebuild Somalia faces new challenges. Beside Islamic extremists, the UN and AU must contend with widespread corruption, an unpopular leadership, militant separatist groups, Ethiopian and Kenyan proxy forces and an unstable economy. For its part, the US has limited its involvement in Somalia as of late. Though the United States occasionally conducts drone strikes against al-Shabaab, fear of upsetting the delicate peace process and killing civilians means that drones are used less liberally there than in Yemen and Pakistan.

Experts like Felbab-Brown are urging the international community to take a new approach: hold Somalia accountable for governmental failures, even if that means confronting allies. Such steps are needed, they say, if ordinary Somalis are to see the government as a legitimate alternative to al-Shabaab.

“They [al-Shabaab] are not good governors. But Somalis often choose between the lesser of two evils,” Felbab-Brown said.

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Critics call Obama’s Libya response weak

President Barack Obama came under heavy fire this week for remarks on Libya, which critics on all sides said amounted to little more than wishful thinking.

Indeed, the Lawyer replaced the Orator Wednesday afternoon. Obama said, “This violence must stop,” but offered limited ideas about how his administration will go about coordinating its end.

“The American people extend our deepest condolences to the families and loved ones of all who’ve been killed or injured. The suffering and bloodshed is outrageous and it is unacceptable. So are threats and orders to shoot peaceful protesters and further punish the people of Libya. These actions violate international norms and every standard of common decency.”

The New Republic called the president out Friday for empty words.

“This ‘must’ denotes an order, or a permission, or an obligation, or a wish, or a will. It does not denote a plan. It includes no implication, no expectation, of action. It is the rhetoric of futility: this infection must stop, this blizzard must stop, this madness must stop…. Must the murder of his own people by this madman stop, Mr. President? Then stop it.”

So far, the U.S. has focused on pursuing sanctions and resolutions geared at pressuring longtime Libyan dictator Muammar Qadhafi into ceasing the attacks he has launched against the opposition, his own citizens.

The United Nations Security Council issued a statement Tuesday denouncing Libya’s abusive crackdown, and asking the dictator to act with restraint and respect for human rights.

Politico reported Thursday that the Obama administration also plans to support a Security Council sanctions resolution, expected to be introduced by the United Kingdom Friday.

Meanwhile, as the politicians and diplomats have gone about officially decrying the bloodshed, the situation has continued to escalate. Clashes between pro-government forces and the opposition moved into Tripoli Friday, with more reports of security forces firing indiscriminately into crowds of protesters.

Reports from inside the country indicate the resulting casualties could now number in the thousands, said Navi Pillay, UN high commissioner for human rights.

Speaking at an emergency session of the UN Human Rights Council Friday in Geneva, she said: “We owe [the Libyan people] our solidarity and protection from violence.

Obama said in his speech Wednesday that human rights are not negotiable, but has not presented specific consequences if the Libyan leader, who has vowed to fight to his “last drop of blood,” doesn’t stop.

Such repercussions need to be made clear and soon, a New York Times editorial said Thursday. Otherwise, the newspaper said, Qadhafi will kill hundreds or even thousands more of his own citizens in his struggle to keep power.

“There is not a lot of time. Colonel Qaddafi and his henchmen have to be told in credible and very specific terms the price they will pay for any more killing,” the Times editorialized. “They need to start paying right now.”

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Can Ghana avoid the "curse of black gold"?

“The oil discovery is a good thing for Ghana. We can make it a blessing instead of a curse.” Ghana National Petroleum Corporation, July 2008.

WASHINGTON — They found oil … in Ghana.

In 2007, UK-based Tullow Oil and U.S.-based Kosmos Energy and Anadarko Petroleum discovered a large accumulation of crude oil at an exploration well off the Western Atlantic coast. Soon after, Ghana’s then-President John Kufuor addressed a crowd of journalists and public officials at the Osu Castle government seat in the capital of Accra.

Reportedly, Kufuor was holding a glass of champagne in one hand, happy.

One BBC correspondent quoted the president as saying, “…you come back in five years, and you’ll see that Ghana truly is the African tiger, in economic terms of development.”

Since then, the Jubilee Oil field has become a major find. The International Monetary Fund gave a total revenue estimate of $20 billion from 2012 to 2030. By 2030, the reserves are expected to reach depletion, after reaching a 500-600 barrel mark.

Certainly, oil revenues will surpass those from gold and cocoa, which are the nation’s main commodity exports. With some 120,000 barrels of oil to be extracted per day at its peak, the country’s proven reserves will be near the reserves of its neighbor, Ivory Coast which are at 100 million barrels, according to the IMF. Peak production will be from 2011 to 2016 and is expected to generate nearly $1 billion a year.

Kosmos Energy, founded in Dallas in 2003, is an international, independent oil and gas exploration company. The company’s Ghanaian affiliate, Kosmos Energy Ghana HC, signed its first petroleum agreement with the country in 2004.

Now, ­negotiations and contracts to begin drilling have been signed and President John Atta-Mills has articulated the government’s goals for increased structural development. Not surprisingly, dozens of scholars and think tanks have released reports on how Ghana should properly manage its potentially vast—and lucrative–oil resources.

Many of them say that if Ghana can find a way to make its oil a curse and not a blessing, it will be a great boost—not just to its own people, but  to the continent of Africa and beyond.  Otherwise, they say, the consequences will be dire.

“If Ghana fails to manage its resources well, then, there’s no hope for Africa,” said Howard University professor, Wilfred David. In an interview, he said Ghana’s government must do everything it can to not follow Nigeria’s poor example of oil management.

“The country must look at the needs of the rural poor and urban poor in providing the basic sectors for the people,” said David, who was a senior economist at the World Bank where he researched African development policy and economics before becoming a professor in 1979 at the reputable historically African-American university.

­There are many indications that Ghana could be a good steward of its newfound resources.

Since its independence, Ghana has not had a civil war.  The occasional ethnic rivalries have been contained for the most part. Its first president, Kwame Nkrumah, put in place a basis for nationalism and patriotism with the implementation of a number of social programs and economic stimulus initiatives, most notably- the Akosombo Dam, which supplies Ghana with hydroelectric power and forms Lake Volta. Although the country did experience economic downturn in the 1980s with many of its patriots fleeing abroad and to neighboring countries, especially Nigeria, signs of recovery emerged in the mid- 1990s. The progress has continued since then.

Many view Ghana as ­the hope of Africa in terms of development and democratic sustainability. The World Bank reported that the country has become a “stable state.” The World Bank also reported that Ghana, unlike Nigeria, has effectively monitored corruption and government effectiveness. It has had five successive presidential democratic elections.

When President Barack Obama visited the West African nation last July, he said he was proud that Ghana was the first sub-Saharan African nation he had visited as President and that oil will bring many opportunities.

“Here in Ghana, you show a face of Africa that is too often overlooked by a world that sees only tragedy or the need for charity,” he said in an address to Ghana’s parliament, “the people of Ghana have worked hard to put democracy on a firmer footing.”

­But Ghana must also learn the lessons of some of its neighbors, which have  found that managing their oil reserves can become what the locals call the “black curse.”

Throughout Africa, the discovery and subsequent exploitation­ of natural resources have brought the good, the bad and the ugly. Too often, the political elite usually enjoy a disproportionate share of the revenue of natural resources. While these tiny percentages of the population live luxurious lifestyles, the majority live in penury.  The dreams of how the minerals, cocoa, diamonds and other natural resources will uplift the country too often turn into hellish nightmares as civil wars often erupt and impoverished people live under authoritarian rule riddled with corruption.

Nigeria has been a vital supplier to the U.S. For more than three decades, it has led oil production in sub-Saharan Africa and as the continent’s most populous nation, it is also one of the world’s 10 largest oil- producing countries. Its highly prized crude oil is light and sweet, which means that it is low in impurities such as sulphur.

However, violence in the oil-rich, Niger-Delta region has been more than problematic. Kidnappings, brutal murders, and civil upheavals have occurred frequently in recent years as local residents demand that the oil revenue trickle down to the needy populace. The situation had gotten so intense and so unpredictably volatile that even Royal Dutch Shell reduced oil production in the region by nearly half a few years ago. ­

In their 2009 report, researchers Todd Moss and Lauren Young, with the Center of Global Development, an independent, non-profit research organization, explained that civil conflicts, government corruption, economic instability, increased poverty, authoritarianism and the destruction of the social contract are directly linked to the exploitation of natural resources.

In an interview, Lauren Young said these negative outcomes usually arise when the interests of the governments of these natural resource- dependent nations are not in sync with those of the people.

In the end, says David, ­

“You judge the society by how your people are doing.” ­

­In Ghana, the increased flow of money should help bring its residents ­to middle- income status, thus reducing poverty. And Ghana may reach the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by the 2015 deadline.  These comprehensive development goals supported by every UN member state and several international organizations, target chronic poverty around the world. Some of the eight UN’s MDGs include: ensure environmental sustainability, develop a global partnership for development, achieve universal primary education and eradicate extreme hunger and poverty.

With a growing middle class, Ghana will ­attract more business, as Obama noted in his speech to the country’s parliament.

“If people are lifted out of poverty and wealth is created in Africa,’’ Obama said, “new markets will open for our own goods.’’

­

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Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference this month

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference is taking in New York throughout the month of May.

According to the United Nations website, NPT is a multilateral treaty with three objectives:

  1. Prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology;
  2. Promote co-operation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy;
  3. Further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament.

This year’s conference drew widespread attention when Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad gave a speech on the first day. He called for “any threat to use nuclear weapons or attack against peaceful nuclear facilities” to be “a breach of international peace and security.” He also denied that Iran is building a nuclear weapon, claiming that its nuclear program is only for the purpose of producing energy,  a purpose members of oil-rich states have been considering since 2005.

According to a BBC report, every signatory state in the treaty has the right to enrich uranium to be used as fuel for civil nuclear power. Those states are under the inspection of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which submits reports periodically, and as cases warrant, to the U.N. Security Council and the U.N. General Assembly.

Iran was such a case, and was censured last year for secretly constructing a nuclear facility and defying U.N. resolutions on uranium enrichment. The BBC also reported that “technology used to enrich uranium for use as fuel for nuclear power can also be used to enrich the uranium to the higher level needed to produce a nuclear explosion.”

The New York Times reported that the United States is worried that an Iranian nuclear bomb may lead other Middle East countries to develop their own. The Times also reported that the Obama administration is “trying to entice Middle Eastern states out of enriching uranium for reactor fuel and later scavenging spent fuel for plutonium, a step known as reprocessing.” Both can be clandestine ways of making atom-bomb fuel since both are allowed under the treaty, the Times reported.

According to an agenda posted online by Reaching Critical Will, other topics to be discussed include the medical and environmental consequences of nuclear war, strategies to end NATO’s nuclear sharing, sustainable security and the 21st century, denuclearization and peace on the Korean peninsula and implementing the African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty.

Reaching Critical Will is a project of the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom that “strives for the abolition of nuclear weapons.” It has posted the complete schedule for the 2010 review conference.

The NPT review conference is held every five years in New York.

Further reading: UN NPT section, Government statements for 2010 review conference and information from previous review conferences, (updated and maintained by Reaching Critical Will) BBC Q&A: Iran and the nuclear issue, New York Times article

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